Recent satellite images have shown significant expansions at two key Iranian ballistic missile facilities, indicating an increase in missile production. This finding, confirmed by three senior Iranian officials, follows an October 2022 agreement where Iran promised to supply missiles to Russia for its war against Ukraine. Tehran also supplies missiles to Yemen's Houthi rebels and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, according to U.S. officials.
Images from Planet Labs, a commercial satellite firm, reveal over 30 new buildings at the Modarres military base and the Khojir missile production complex, both near Tehran. These structures are surrounded by large dirt berms, designed to contain explosions within individual buildings, which are commonly associated with missile production. Jeffrey Lewis from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey noted that the expansions began at Khojir in August last year and at Modarres in October.
Iran already has the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East, with over 3,000 missiles capable of carrying conventional and nuclear warheads. The expansions at Modarres and Khojir aim to increase the production of conventional ballistic missiles, according to three Iranian officials who requested anonymity. One official stated, "Why shouldn't we?" Another added that some new buildings would double drone manufacturing capabilities, with drones and missile components intended for Russia and missiles for Hezbollah.
Iran's mission to the United Nations did not respond to requests for comment on the expansions. Tehran has previously denied providing drones and missiles to Russia and the Houthis, and Hezbollah's media office and Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam did not respond to requests for comment.
Lewis analyzed the satellite images with Decker Eveleth, a research analyst at CNA, a Washington think tank. Lewis pointed out that Russia is seeking low-cost missile capabilities and has turned to Iran and North Korea. Both Moscow and Pyongyang have denied transferring North Korean missiles to Russia, and neither the Russian embassy in Washington nor North Korea's mission to the United Nations responded to requests for comment.
The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the researchers' analysis. A U.S. National Security Council spokesperson also declined to confirm their assessment but noted that the U.S. has implemented various measures, including sanctions, to limit Iranian missile and drone production and exports. In February, it was reported that Iran had sent surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine, which Iran denied.
Shahid Modarres and Khojir are overseen by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which plays a central role in Iran's missile and nuclear programs. These complexes have long been associated with developing and producing Iran's short- and medium-range ballistic missiles and rockets for the country's space program.
On November 12, 2011, a massive explosion at Shahid Modarres killed 17 IRGC officers, including Gen. Hassan Moqaddam, regarded as the "architect" of Iran's ballistic missile program. Construction at Shahid Modarres accelerated last year after resuming following the 2011 explosion. Lewis speculated that the Iranians might have chosen not to berm the buildings before the explosion to avoid drawing attention to them, adding, "They learned the hard way."
Eveleth and Lewis concluded that the long history of these sites with Iran's missile program and the presence of numerous dirt berms support their assessment that Tehran is expanding ballistic missile production. "When we see where you basically have an entire production line that is bermed like that, that's usually missiles," Eveleth replied.
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